The euro today rallied against the US dollar for the fourth consecutive session despite the lack of releases from the European docket due to the labour day holiday. The EUR/USD currency pair today rallied higher from the early European session as investors adopted a wait and see attitude towards the greenback ahead of the FOMC interest rate decision. The EUR/USD currency pair today rallied from an initial low of 1.1212 to a high of 1.1248 in the American session following the release of the weak US ISM PMI data. The currency pair traded in a tight sideways range during the Asian session as the major Asian markets such as Japan and China remained closed due to the labour day celebrations. The pair rallied higher in the early European session as the UK markets opened for business despite the closure of most European markets including German, French and Italian markets. The pair’s rally was largely driven by the US dollar dynamics given that the US Dollar Index hit a low of 97.27 today. The release of the upbeat US ADP employment change report triggered a massive decline by the pair as the print came in at 275,000 new jobs beating expectations set at 180,000 jobs. However, the pair rallied higher after the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, which came in at 52.8 versus the expected 55.0 print. The currency pair’s short-term performance is likely to be affected by the FOMC rate decision scheduled for 18:00 GMT. The EUR/USD currency pair was trading at 1.1246 as at 15:14 GMT having rallied from a low of 1.1212, The EUR/JPY currency pair was trading at 125.07 having dropped from a high of 125.22. © SimonMugo for Forex News, 2019. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us Feed enhanced by Better Feed from Ozh Euro Drops on Upbeat US ADP Jobs Data, Rallies on Weak PMI Print published first on https://medium.com/@forexlasersforum via Tumblr Euro Drops on Upbeat US ADP Jobs Data, Rallies on Weak PMI Print
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The US dollar is sliding midweek as President Donald Trump continues to pressure the Federal Reserve cut interest rates because the economy would ascend “like a rocket.” An influx of mixed data has also been coming out, showcasing some bright spots and some dim aspects that could be signs of a somewhat cooling economy. On Tuesday, President Trump tweeted that the US central bank should consider reducing rates by as much as a full percentage point from its current range of between 2.25% and 2.5%. For if they did, Trump noted, the country “could be setting major records.”
Since entering the Oval Office, the Fed has raised rates several times, though the Eccles Building has hit the pause button in recent months. Recently, the Fed forecast just one rate hike in 2019 and zero rate hikes next year. It also lowered its estimates for US economic growth this year and the next. Did the president influence the Fed? Many officials have come out and said the White House did not have a bearing on the Fed’s latest moves, arguing that it is an independent institution that does not take its orders from Washington. However, its 100-year history suggests something completely different. The Fed will complete its two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting on Wednesday. It is widely expected that the central bank will keep rates unchanged, notes the CME Group FedWatch tool. Interestingly enough, there is a growing number of economists who believe the central bank could slash rates over the coming months. On the data front, the housing market is not getting a jolt, despite in the middle of the typically busy buying season. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), mortgage application volume declined 4.3%, applications to refinance a home fell 5%, and mortgage applications to purchase a home tumbled 4%. This comes one day after the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose by 0.2%, which is lower than the median estimate of 0.3%. Home sales in March soared 3.8%, beating the market forecast of 1.2% and is up from the previous month’s 1% contraction. Inflation remains muted as higher labor costs were complemented by rising housing prices in the first quarter. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) found that wages climbed 0.7%, benefits jumped 0.7%, and the overall Employment Cost Index edged up 0.7%. Overall consumer confidence was higher than what the market had penciled in for April. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence improved to 129.2, up from March’s revised 124.2. The USD/CAD currency pair dipped 0.08% to 1.3401, from an opening of 1.3389, at 12:27 GMT on Wednesday. The GBP/USD tumbled 0.25% to 1.3066, from an opening of 1.3034. © AndrewMoran for Forex News, 2019. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us Feed enhanced by Better Feed from Ozh US Dollar Slides Amid Trump-Fed Battle Over Interest Rates published first on https://medium.com/@forexlasersforum via Tumblr US Dollar Slides Amid Trump-Fed Battle Over Interest Rates The decline that started around 1.0700 on the Australian dollar versus the New Zealand dollar currency pair looks like it is making the first step towards confirming a weekly major support area. Long-term perspectiveAfter the rally that started at 1.0300 and pierced the resistance of the descending trend managed to continue without looking back until it touched the 1.0666 second weekly major support, the price corrected in the form of a retracement to the first weekly major support at 1.0546. Such a strong appreciation that crosses three major lines — the resistance of the descending trend and the two major weekly levels — needs to correct and confirm the new direction, otherwise it could be considered a bubble and attract a massive sell that will invalidate the entire move and the bullish direction itself. So, such a correction needs to confirm as a support one of the three aforementioned areas. The current development hints that 1.0546 could be the level that will help the bulls, but, for this to actually happen, the price must remain above 1.0546 or falsely break it. This could also lead to a possible range or a symmetrical triangle limited by 1.0546 and 1.0666, both continuation patterns that in the current context will fuel the resume of the appreciation. Only a piercing and confirmation as resistance of 1.0546 could change the view and cause a fall towards 1.0452. Short-term perspectiveThe upwards move that began at 1.0398 ended at 1.0731, giving way to the piercing of the support trendline. But the depreciation was halted by 1.0542, from where the price printed a strong bullish candle. For a while, price could consolidate between 1.0542 and 1.0625 with the expectancy of a piercing of 1.0625 and its confirmation as a support. As long as 1.0542 serves as support new extensions towards 1.0672 and 1.0731 are possible. Levels to keep an eye on:
© DorinRosu for Forex News, 2019. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us Feed enhanced by Better Feed from Ozh AUD/NZD Follows the Plan and Confirms 1.0546 Support published first on https://medium.com/@forexlasersforum via Tumblr AUD/NZD Follows the Plan and Confirms 1.0546 Support EURUSD Forecast: Bullish Correction Set to Challenge the Trendline Resistance EURUSD Forecast: Bullish Correction Set to Challenge the Trendline Resistance published first on https://medium.com/@forexlasersforum via Tumblr EURUSD Forecast: Bullish Correction Set to Challenge the Trendline Resistance GBPUSD Forecast: Traded Back Above 1.3000, Bears are Losing Control GBPUSD Forecast: Traded Back Above 1.3000, Bears are Losing Control published first on https://medium.com/@forexlasersforum via Tumblr GBPUSD Forecast: Traded Back Above 1.3000, Bears are Losing Control USDJPY Forecast: Bearish Confirmed, Ready to Drop Further USDJPY Forecast: Bearish Confirmed, Ready to Drop Further published first on https://medium.com/@forexlasersforum via Tumblr USDJPY Forecast: Bearish Confirmed, Ready to Drop Further USDCHF Forecast: In Consolidation Mode but Bearish Pullback is Likely USDCHF Forecast: In Consolidation Mode but Bearish Pullback is Likely published first on https://medium.com/@forexlasersforum via Tumblr USDCHF Forecast: In Consolidation Mode but Bearish Pullback is Likely The Canadian dollar is weakening on Tuesday after new data showed that the economy contracted in February, reducing some of its gains in January. Thanks to sluggish resource output, analysts are beginning to forecast an economic slump in the first quarter. This could explain why there is declining business sentiment nationwide. According to Statistics Canada, the gross domestic product (GDP) slipped 0.1% in February, down from the 0.3% gain in January. The market had forecast that economic growth would come in at 0.3%. The statistics agency is blaming poor weather for the disappointing numbers. But the latest data remains consistent with the overall economic picture, leaving economists with fears that the Canadian economy may either barely grow or even contract during the January-to-March period. Here is what the sectors experienced: transportation and warehousing recorded a 1.6% drop, utilities advanced 1.5%, energy dipped 0.1%, manufacturing fell 0.4%, and mining cratered 4.4%. Is this stagnancy going to continue for the rest of 2019? Speaking to the House of Commons finance committee, Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Stephen Poloz thinks there will be an acceleration in the second half of this year. Despite facing a series of headwinds and the central bank refraining from raising interest rates, the BOC head believes there is ample evidence for significant growth in the third and fourth quarters.
Businesses might wish they were as confident as Poloz. According to a BOC survey, business confidence turned negative and tumbled to its lowest level since 2016. Central bank analysts say that a cooling economy, uncertainty in the energy sector, and global trade tensions are contributing to this bearish view. The USD/CAD currency pair rose 0.51% to 1.3457, from an opening of 1.3391, at 18:05 GMT on Tuesday. The GBP/CAD surged 0.32% to 1.7459, from an opening of 1.7406. © AndrewMoran for Forex News, 2019. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us Feed enhanced by Better Feed from Ozh Canadian Dollar Weakens on Shrinking Economy, Business Sentiment published first on https://medium.com/@forexlasersforum via Tumblr Canadian Dollar Weakens on Shrinking Economy, Business Sentiment GBPUSD Forecast: A Weak Correction Signaling Potential Retest of 1.2900 Support GBPUSD Forecast: A Weak Correction Signaling Potential Retest of 1.2900 Support published first on https://medium.com/@forexlasersforum via Tumblr GBPUSD Forecast: A Weak Correction Signaling Potential Retest of 1.2900 Support USDJPY Forecast: Indecisive but Remains Pointing Lower USDJPY Forecast: Indecisive but Remains Pointing Lower published first on https://medium.com/@forexlasersforum via Tumblr USDJPY Forecast: Indecisive but Remains Pointing Lower |
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