The Mexican peso weakened against a basket of currencies towards the end of the trading week after the economy contracted in the first quarter. Despite the deceleration across the country, the peso is still one of the best performing currencies so far this year. Could it hold up after a plethora of forecasts suggest the Mexican economy is in store for a rough period? In the first quarter, the gross domestic product (GDP) fell 0.2% as services activity slipped, which surprised analysts because this sector had been the lone bright spot for several quarters. The GDP rose 1.3% from the previous year, down 1.7% at the end of last year. The official numbers will come out at the end of May, but the incumbent president is already blaming his predecessor, former President Enrique Pena Nieto, for the disappointing economic numbers. President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador promised to grow the economy by 4%, though he does have an uphill mountain to climb. The country suffers from a wide variety of problems, from crime to a timid rule of law to weakening crude oil output and falling private investment. For the time being, he is blaming “conservative analysts” for trying to undermine his agenda.
To achieve the president’s aims, many experts anticipate the central bank will slash interest rates at the end of the year to spur inflation and economic growth. Today, rates are at a decade-high of 8.25%. But many economists are not optimistic that Mexico will advance its economy. Writing in a recent report, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) expects Latin America’s second-largest economy to weaken for the remainder of 2019 and then rally next year. The OECD forecasts GDP growing 1.6% this year and 2.0% in 2020.
This is in line with what the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected last month in its World Economic Outlook. The IMF lowered its forecast for Mexico’s GDP to 1.6% for 2019 and 1.9% for 2020. The USD/MXN currency pair surged 0.58% to 19.1047, from an opening of 18.9954, at 17:42 GMT on Thursday. The EUR/MXN soared 0.42% to 21.3525, from an opening of 21.2679. © AndrewMoran for Forex News, 2019. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us Feed enhanced by Better Feed from Ozh Mexican Peso Weakens As Economy Contracts In Q1, AMLO Dismisses Concerns published first on https://medium.com/@forexlasersforum via Tumblr Mexican Peso Weakens As Economy Contracts In Q1, AMLO Dismisses Concerns
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The euro today fell to new 3-day lows against the resurgent US dollar as investors bought the world’s reserve currency with positive expectations. The EUR/USD currency pair extended yesterday’s fall, which was triggered by the FOMC‘s positive outlook for the US economy. The EUR/USD currency pair today fell from a high of 1.1219 in the early European session to a low of 1.1171 in the American session. The currency pair opened today’s session with a positive bias as investors hoped that the single currency would recover from yesterday’s dip triggered by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell‘s upbeat comments about the US economy. However, the pair dipped lower after the release of weak German retail sales data for March by the Federal Statistical Office, which contracted by 0.2% and dropped to an annualized -2.1% versus the expected 2.9% print. The pair then rallied to its daily highs despite the release of weak Markit/BME Germany manufacturing PMI, which came in at 44.4 as compared to the estimated 4.5. The pair then dropped shortly after the release of the upbeat Markit Eurozone manufacturing PMI, which was recorded at 47.9 versus the consensus estimate of 47.8. The pair kept dropping in the early American session following the release of the upbeat US factory orders data for March by the Census Bureau. The currency pair’s future performance is likely to be influenced by tomorrow’s eurozone CPI data and the US non-farm payrolls report. The EUR/USD currency pair was trading at 1.1176 as at 17:25 GMT having dropped from a high of 1.1219. The EUR/JPY currency pair was trading at 124.63 having fallen from a high of 125.12. © SimonMugo for Forex News, 2019. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us Feed enhanced by Better Feed from Ozh Euro Falls to New 3-Day Lows Against a Resurgent Dollar published first on https://medium.com/@forexlasersforum via Tumblr Euro Falls to New 3-Day Lows Against a Resurgent Dollar The British pound today fell against the US dollar after the Bank of England left its monetary policy unchanged and exhibited confidence in Britain’s economy. The GBP/USD currency pair had rallied higher earlier today amid rumors that Theresa May was willing to relax her tough stand on a customs union with the EU in order to get her Brexit deal done. The GBP/USD currency pair today initially rallied to a session high of 1.3081 before falling to a low of 1.3016 in the American session. The currency pair initially traded in a tight range during the Asian session before rallying higher in the early European session. However, the pair soon fell despite the release of the upbeat Markit/CIPS UK construction PMI, which came in at 50.5 beating expectations set at 50.3. The cable’s decline continued even after the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee left the bank’s refinancing rate at 0.75% and the asset purchase facility at £435 billion as expected. Investors were disappointed that the MPC voted unanimously against a rate hike. The BoE also released its quarterly inflation report and the BoE Governor Mark Carney also gave a speech reiterating the central bank’s position. The cable headed lower in the American session as the greenback rallied higher driving the US Dollar Index to a daily high of 97.85. The disappointing US initial jobless claims report had a muted impact on the pair. The currency pair’s future performance is likely to be affected by tomorrow’s UK services PMI and US non-farm payrolls. The GBP/USD currency pair was trading at 1.3023 as at 16:10 GMT having dropped from a high of 1.3081. The GBP/JPY currency pair was trading at 145.12 having declined from a high of 145.86. © SimonMugo for Forex News, 2019. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us Feed enhanced by Better Feed from Ozh British Pound Drops Despite Balanced BoE Interest Rate Decision published first on https://medium.com/@forexlasersforum via Tumblr British Pound Drops Despite Balanced BoE Interest Rate Decision The Swiss franc was soft today following the release of disappointing macroeconomic data in Switzerland. The Swiss Federal Statistical Office reported that retail sales dropped 0.7% in March compared with the previous year. That was a bigger drop than experts had predicted — 0.5%. On a positive side, the February reading was revised from a drop by 0.2% to no change. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index dropped to 48.5 in April from 50.3 in the previous month. That is instead of rising to 51.0 as analysts had predicted. The KOF Economic Barometer dropped from 97.1 in March (revised from 97.4) to 96.2 in April. That frustrated specialists who had predicted an increase to 97.5. USD/CHF climbed from 1.0177 to 1.0202 as of 13:40 GMT today. EUR/CHF advanced from 1.1394 to 1.1405. CHF/JPY slipped from the opening of 109.47 to 109.33 after rising to the daily high of 109.69 earlier. © NewsInspector for Forex News, 2019. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us Feed enhanced by Better Feed from Ozh Swiss Franc Soft After Disappointing Macroeconomic Releases published first on https://medium.com/@forexlasersforum via Tumblr Swiss Franc Soft After Disappointing Macroeconomic Releases The Australian dollar demonstrated the same performance as its New Zealand counterpart — rising a bit today after yesterday’s big slump. Unlike the kiwi though, the Aussie did not have negative domestic economic data to explain the decline. Perhaps, the currency continued to fall after disappointing macroeconomic releases in China on Tuesday. Update: currently, the Aussie has lost its gains. Released on April 30, China’s official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index showed a decline to 50.1 in April from 50.5 in March instead of increase to 50.7 predicted by analysts. The official non-manufacturing PMI dropped to 54.3 from 54.8, whereas experts had predicted an increase to 55.0. The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI logged a decline from 50.8 in March to 50.2 in April, missing the consensus forecast of 51.0. As for Australia’s macroeconomic data, the Australian Industry Group Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index climbed to 54.8 in April from 51.0 in March. The Reserve Bank of Australia reported that private sector credit rose 0.3% in March from the previous month, the same as in February and in line with market expectations. AUD/USD traded at 0.7011 as of 12:44 GMT today after opening at 0.7014 and rising to the daily high of 0.7029. EUR/AUD inched up from 1.5957 to 1.5971 following the earlier decline to the daily low of 1.5939. AUD/JPY was about flat at 78.15 after rising to the session maximum of 78.45 earlier. © NewsInspector for Forex News, 2019. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us Feed enhanced by Better Feed from Ozh Australian Dollar Recovers After China’s Disappointing Data published first on https://medium.com/@forexlasersforum via Tumblr Australian Dollar Recovers After China’s Disappointing Data The New Zealand dollar edged higher today following yesterday’s huge slump even though macroeconomic data released during today’s trading session was negative. The plunge during the previous session was caused by worse-than-expected jobs data. Statistics New Zealand released a report on building consents, showing a drop by 6.9% in March on a seasonally adjusted basis. The drop followed the increase by 1.7% in February. Released yesterday, the employment report showed that the number of employed people in Australia fell 0.2% in the March quarter from the previous three months after inching up 0.1% in the December quarter. That is instead of rising 0.5% as analysts had predicted. At the same time, the unemployment rate edged down from 4.3% to 4.2%, in line with expectations. Released on Tuesday, the ANZ Business Confidence improved marginally from -38.0 in March to -37.5 in April. The report said that “a net 38% of respondents reporting that they expect general business conditions to deteriorate in the year ahead”. NZD/USD edged up from 0.6619 to 0.6627 as of 10:52 GMT today. EUR/NZD was at about 1.6895 after opening at 1.6904 and touching the daily low of 1.6876. NZD/JPY rose from 73.71 to 73.91. © NewsInspector for Forex News, 2019. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.icio.us Feed enhanced by Better Feed from Ozh NZ Dollar Edges Higher After Wednesday’s Slump published first on https://medium.com/@forexlasersforum via Tumblr NZ Dollar Edges Higher After Wednesday’s Slump EURUSD: Bearish Pin Bar Threats Bullish Correction. Eyes on 1.1175 with a breakdown to retest 1.11205/2/2019 EURUSD: Bearish Pin Bar Threats Bullish Correction. Eyes on 1.1175 with a breakdown to retest 1.1120 With the fact that the bearish pin bar appeared just below the falling trendline, the bullish correction is now in jeopardy. The bias is bearish in the near term, testing 1.1175 support area. A clear break below that area would confirm the bullish correction invalidation to target 1.1120 key support area which remains a good place for a long position with a tight stop loss as a decisive break below 1.1120 would confirm resumption of the major downtrend theme. On the other hand, a failure to clear 1.1175 support would keep the bullish recovery in play pushing price back towards the trendline barrier once again. EURUSD: Bearish Pin Bar Threats Bullish Correction. Eyes on 1.1175 with a breakdown to retest 1.1120 published first on https://medium.com/@forexlasersforum via Tumblr EURUSD: Bearish Pin Bar Threats Bullish Correction. Eyes on 1.1175 with a breakdown to retest 1.1120 GBPUSD: Bearish Pin Bar put Bullish in Danger but Remains Valid Above 1.3000 The bearish pin bar popped up on the daily chart as you can see on my daily chart below pose potential threat to the bullish bias with a break back below 1.3000 not only expose 1.2900 region but would bring the major bearish fashion back in play as it would also represent a rejection above the daily EMA 200 key resistance. Vice versa to the upside, a break above 1.3100 barrier would nullify the bearish pin bar scenario and stimulate higher movement towards 1.3210 even reopen the path to 1.3365/80 (March high). GBPUSD: Bearish Pin Bar put Bullish in Danger but Remains Valid Above 1.3000 published first on https://medium.com/@forexlasersforum via Tumblr GBPUSD: Bearish Pin Bar put Bullish in Danger but Remains Valid Above 1.3000 USDJPY: Support Holds, Bearish Needs Break Below 111.00 Immediate resistance is seen around 111.70. A clear break and a daily close above that level would likely to push price higher testing 112.00 key resistance which remains a good place for a short position with a tight stop loss as a clear break and a daily close above that area would abort the bearish bias and could easily target 113.15 or higher. Immediate support resides around 111.35. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 111.00 with a break below would put the pair vulnerable to more intense selling pressures targeting 110.00 area where potential fresh buyers may be seen. USDJPY: Support Holds, Bearish Needs Break Below 111.00 published first on https://medium.com/@forexlasersforum via Tumblr USDJPY: Support Holds, Bearish Needs Break Below 111.00 USDCHF: False Breakout Below Range to Prove the Bulls Not Willing to Give Up The false breakout below the rectangle is not a good news to the bearish correction and the fact that a bullish pin bar also popped up on the daily chart only bolster the view of resumption of the broader bullish theme. However, remember that we need a clear break above the rectangle and 1.0236 level to confirm this bullish continuation scenario. On the downside, key immediate support now lies at the “tail” of the bullish pin bar located at 1.0125. A clear break below that area would invalidate the bullish pin bar scenario and push price to the downside towards 1.0075 or lower. USDCHF: False Breakout Below Range to Prove the Bulls Not Willing to Give Up published first on https://medium.com/@forexlasersforum via Tumblr USDCHF: False Breakout Below Range to Prove the Bulls Not Willing to Give Up |
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